Methodology

The National Risk Assessment consists of four parts:

1. General environment and emerging risks
2. Threat assessments
3. Sectoral risk analyses
4. Municipal risk analyses

The general environmental description is compiled by the Government Office based on public opinion surveys, strategic documents, and other public sources, after which it is coordinated with the relevant authorities and ministries. This section highlights general trends in areas such as social cohesion, public health, climate, the international environment, cyberspace and the economy.

The main objective of the risk assessment is to identify hazards that may cause a crisis and to determine their severity. Hazard analysis is part of the everyday work of institutions. For example, the Rescue Board continuously analyses the causes of fires, the Agriculture and Food Board monitors the occurrence and spread of animal diseases, the Foreign Intelligence Service assesses military threats, the Internal Security Service evaluates asymmetric threats, and the Information System Authority analyses cyber threats. The Government Office coordinates the consolidation of these different analyses into a comprehensive national risk picture.

In the National Risk Assessment, the likelihood of a hazard materialising is presented according to the following scale:

• Improbable: The hazard develops into a crisis within the next two years with a probability of 0–20%, or it develops into a crisis in more than 20 years.
• Unlikely: The hazard develops into a crisis within the next two years with a probability of 21–40%, or it develops into a crisis within the next 10–20 years.
• Likely: The hazard develops into a crisis within the next two years with a probability of 41–60%, or it develops into a crisis within the next 5–10 years.
• Very likely: The hazard develops into a crisis within the next two years with a probability of 61–80%, or it develops into a crisis within the next 1–5 years.
• Definite: The hazard develops into a crisis within the next two years with a probability of 81–100%, or it develops into a crisis in less than one year, or there is already a crisis caused by the hazard.

Although probability is a useful indicator, it does not fully reflect the priority of a hazard. To determine the actual significance of a hazard, it is necessary to also consider its potential consequences, taking into account both the extent and nature of the impact. In addition, trends associated with the hazard must also be considered. Risk assessment cannot be a one-off or static activity, but must instead be a continuous process based on monitoring, adaptation, and prevention.

When assessing the potential impacts of a hazard, the analysis is based on the most likely crisis scenarios. The impact assessment therefore focuses on realistic and reasonably foreseeable crisis situations.

The hazard assessment also highlights relevant trends and changes that may increase or reduce risks, which could affect the likelihood of a hazard materialising in the near future. Identifying future directions and possible changes helps to prevent harmful consequences and make use of new opportunities to mitigate risks.

Sectoral risk analysis is part of the overall national risk assessment process. Within this framework, the relevant authorities assess the potential impact of risks on the continuity of essential services in their sector (or, where these do not apply, on the general functioning of the sector). Sectoral risk analyses focus on the most probable worst-case impacts of all the risks identified in the National Risk Assessment, to determine the potential scope of sectoral impacts and identify interdependencies.

The list of sectors analysed under sectoral risk analysis is based on those set out in the annex to the CER Directive:

• Energy, including electricity, district heating and cooling, liquid fuels, natural gas, hydrogen
• Transport, including air, rail, water, road, and public transport
• Banking and financial market infrastructure
• Health
• Drinking water
• Wastewater and sewage
• Digital infrastructure
• Central government
• Space
• Food production, processing, and distribution

All 79 local governments also contribute to the National Risk Assessment. They identify hazards to essential services for which they are responsible. Local governments must assess risks relating to district heating, water supply, sewage, and the drivability of local roads.

This risk picture brings together summaries of analyses prepared by various authorities. For more detailed information, it is necessary to contact the institution that provided the input. Further information can be obtained via email at [email protected]