The risks are not new compared to the last assessment, but the risk environment has changed somewhat. "Above all, this is due to Russia continuing to prioritise its war against Ukraine and because of its growing aggression,” explained Erkki Tori, the director of the National Security and Defence Coordination Unit of the Government Office. “Russian special services are exerting hybrid pressure to undermine the sense of security in European societies and to create confusion, and there is no end in sight to their activities. But these are threats that Estonia is ready to deal with.”
In addition to such threats, the national risk profile brings together operational guidelines on how to prepare for threats and risks and what to do in crisis situations. It also provides an overview of how and in which areas Estonia's crisis preparedness has developed and what role everyone plays in crisis situations.
"Although there is no immediate military threat to Estonia, the danger that Russia presents to Estonia is long-term and indeed existential in nature,” Tori cautioned. “The threat of a military attack depends on Russia's hostile objectives, the war in Ukraine, the implementation of ongoing military reforms, the strength of NATO’s deterrence and the possible deterioration of the global security environment. If Russia were to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, that would mean a further deterioration in the security situation in the Baltic Sea region.”
In addition to security-related vulnerabilities, risks related to health, climate change and growth in technological dependency were also assessed as part of the risk profile. For example, experts have highlighted the possibility of a communications blackout caused by a major power outage and the possibility of a rail or shipping accident with serious consequences, including the resulting environmental damage. In the latter case, an increase in cargo vessel traffic (especially oil and gas tankers) on the Gulf of Finland is seen as a risk. Due to EU sanctions, Russian crude oil and gas supplies are increasingly being delivered by third-country tankers about which not enough is known in regard to their ice class or experience of the Baltic Sea climate.
The proliferation of infectious diseases with a high potential for spreading brought in from abroad (in particular pneumococcal and airborne viral diseases) remains likely. Although unlikely at present, the low vaccination rate among the population and the associated potential for the epidemic spread of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases is a cause for concern.
View the updated national risk profile on the Government Office website.
